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Pulp Price Decline In Asian Market In November May Fall In The Short Term
Dec 14, 2018

International pulp prices reversed in November after the Asian market remained stable in October. Some market participants expect that the price of pulp will be affected by the weakening demand in the short term, but in the long run, the price of pulp is still rising.

Since the fourth quarter of the previous year, the international pulp price has started to rise at a high rate, a fast increase and an unprecedented long-wave band rise, and even hit a record high. In the first half of this year, although international pulp prices have been flattened in various major markets, they are basically in a rising trend. However, due to the large increase in the price of pulp in the Asian market from the fourth quarter of last year to January this year, the price of pulp in the European and American markets was more volatile after 2 and 3 months.

Until the beginning of the third season, the international pulp price remained roughly flat in the Asian market. In August, there was a sharp correction, mainly due to the downward revision of the NBSK offer. However, the price of NBSK, which only fell back in September, was reversed. The short fiber offer (mainly BEK eucalyptus pulp) is roughly flat.

In the third quarter of the European and American markets, the price of long-staple fiber in the European market was basically flat in each month. However, due to the strong domestic demand in the US market, the price of long and short is almost the same.

In the beginning of the fourth quarter of October, the price of pulp in the Asian market remained unchanged. Among them, Canfor, a large plant with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, had a shutdown of the pulp line in late September due to boiler damage. Maintenance, the time is 70-80 days, it is estimated that the production of NBSK will be reduced by about 60,000-70,000 tons. Therefore, it was announced that the price of NBSK will be increased for the Asian market in October, 30 US dollars per ton, but it was ultimately unacceptable because it was not accepted downstream. .

In addition, the European market is also in the same level as the Asian market. Only the international pulp price in the US market continues to rise. It is clear that the supply and demand in this market is quite active and is not affected by the Sino-US trade war.

According to the latest report from Canada's PPPC (Pulp & Paper Products Council), the total shipment volume of international market pulp in September was 4.624 million tons, an increase of 4.4% from the previous month and an increase of 7.1% from the same period last year. Among them, the sales to the North American market is estimated at 642,000 tons, an increase of 3.9% from the previous month, and a decrease of 6% compared with the same period last year. The shipment to the Western European market is estimated at 1.326 million tons, an increase of 7.9% from the previous month and an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year. In addition, it was exported to the mainland China market at 1.49 million tons, an increase of 23.3% from the previous month and an increase of 16.7% over the same period last year. The ratio of the above shipments to production was 97%, an increase of 11% from the previous month. From the above, the demand for pulp in the international market in September is quite strong.